EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: March 24-28, 2026
The dust is settling after a pivotal week for EUR/USD. Both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank held rates steady — the Fed at 3.75% and the ECB at 2.15% — leaving the interest rate differential unchanged. With the central bank event risk now behind us, the focus shifts to economic data and whether EUR/USD can find a floor after its multi-week decline.
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What We Learned
The FOMC meeting on March 18 delivered a hold with a cautiously hawkish tone. The updated dot plot maintained the projection for one more rate cut in 2026, pushing back market expectations for a June cut. Chair Powell emphasized data-dependency, with particular attention to inflation persistence.
The ECB on March 19 also held, but President Lagarde struck a more dovish tone than expected, citing downside risks to eurozone growth from trade uncertainty and energy costs. The divergence in tone — hawkish Fed vs dovish ECB — reinforced the bearish EUR/USD bias.
Positioning Implications
The rate differential continues to favor the dollar. With US rates at 3.75% and ECB rates at 2.15%, the 160bps gap provides ongoing carry trade incentive to sell EUR/USD. This structural pressure will persist until either the Fed turns dovish or the ECB turns hawkish — neither of which appears imminent.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels for March 24-28
| Level | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1350 | Extended Support | June 2025 swing low, next target if 1.1400 breaks |
| 1.1400 | Major Support | Psychological level, multiple tests this month |
| 1.1450 | Near Support | Intraday reaction zone, minor |
| 1.1500 | Key Resistance | Former support, now resistance — reclaim = bullish |
| 1.1550 | Resistance | Recent breakdown point, 20-day EMA zone |
| 1.1600 | Major Resistance | 50-day SMA, significant overhead barrier |
Chart Structure
EUR/USD remains in a daily downtrend with lower highs and lower lows since early March. The pair is trading below all major moving averages (20, 50, 200-day), confirming bearish momentum.
However, the weekly RSI is approaching oversold territory (near 35), which historically precedes at least a short-term bounce. This does not mean the downtrend is over — but it suggests the pace of selling may slow.
The 1.1400-1.1500 range is emerging as the battleground. A confirmed break below 1.1400 opens the door to 1.1350 and potentially 1.1300. A reclaim of 1.1500 would be the first constructive signal for euro bulls.
Key Economic Events: March 24-28
Monday, March 24
| Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | Eurozone Composite PMI (Flash) | 49.8 | 50.2 |
| 13:45 | US Composite PMI (Flash) | 52.0 | 51.6 |
Impact: Eurozone PMI dipping below 50 (contraction territory) would reinforce the dovish ECB narrative and pressure EUR/USD. A US beat would widen the growth divergence further.
Tuesday, March 25
| Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US GDP (Q4 Revision) | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 14:00 | US Consumer Confidence | 105.0 | 106.7 |
| 14:00 | US New Home Sales | 710K | 723K |
Impact: GDP revision is unlikely to surprise but confirms the growth picture. Consumer Confidence trending lower could signal early cracks in the US consumer — mildly EUR/USD positive if weak.
Wednesday, March 26
| Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US Durable Goods Orders | 1.0% | -0.3% |
Impact: A rebound in durable goods would support the “resilient US economy” narrative and dollar strength.
Thursday, March 27
| Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US Jobless Claims | 218K | 215K |
| 12:30 | US Q4 GDP (Final) | 3.2% | 3.2% |
Impact: Claims remain low, confirming labor market strength. Any uptick above 225K would draw attention.
Friday, March 28
| Time (UTC) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US PCE Price Index | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 12:30 | US Core PCE (YoY) | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 12:30 | US Personal Spending | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Impact: PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. This is the most important release of the week. Core PCE dropping to 2.7% from 2.8% would be mildly dovish and could spark a EUR/USD bounce. Any upside surprise would hammer the pair.
Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1: Range Consolidation (55% probability)
EUR/USD digests the FOMC/ECB outcomes and trades sideways between 1.1400 and 1.1500 as traders wait for Friday’s PCE data. Volatility remains compressed Monday-Thursday before expanding on Friday.
Strategy: Grid trading with 15-20 pip spacing is well-suited for this scenario. The GridMaster EA can automate this with equity protection. See our grid trading strategy guide for optimal settings.
Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation (30% probability)
Weak Eurozone PMI on Monday triggers a break below 1.1400, followed by hot PCE data on Friday confirming the “higher for longer” Fed stance. EUR/USD reaches 1.1350 by week’s end.
Triggers: Eurozone PMI below 49.5, Core PCE above 2.8%, geopolitical escalation.
Strategy: Trend-following on the short side. The SteadyPips EA can capture this move with proper risk management.
Scenario 3: Relief Rally (15% probability)
Markets decide the selloff is overdone. Eurozone PMI holds above 50, US data disappoints, and PCE comes in soft. Short-covering pushes EUR/USD back above 1.1500, testing 1.1550.
Triggers: Eurozone PMI above 50.5, US Consumer Confidence miss, Core PCE at or below 2.6%.
Risk Management for Post-Central-Bank Weeks
After major central bank events, the market often consolidates before choosing a direction. This creates specific risks:
- False breakouts — Price may briefly pierce support or resistance before reversing. Wait for a daily close to confirm
- Thin liquidity pockets — Mid-week can see lower volume, leading to erratic moves
- Friday surprise — PCE data on the last trading day means positions held over the weekend carry event risk
Practical tips:
- Reduce position sizes by 25-50% compared to normal
- Widen stops to account for post-event volatility
- Avoid holding large positions into Friday’s PCE release
- Consider using EAs with weekend close features
Further Reading
- What Is Grid Trading in Forex? — Profit from range-bound conditions
- Grid Trading Strategy: Complete Guide — Settings and risk management
- Forex Risk Management Guide — Protect your capital in volatile markets
- Download Free Trading EAs — Automate your trading with SteadyPips and GridMaster
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading forex carries significant risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own analysis before making trading decisions.